Ten modern commodity squeezes — crude, gas, precious metals, critical minerals, and the COVID-2020 demand collapse used as an inverted analog — cropped to day −60 through day +60 around each local peak, normalized, and overlaid. The composite trace is what the tape has historically walked when supply got tight. The second tab converts the resulting peak distribution into an actual position.
Each analog is normalized to its own peak and aligned on a single axis — day −60 through day +60, daily closes only. Weights favor (a) liquid markets, (b) prior oil shocks, and (c) recent cycles over distant ones.
Pure financial squeezes excluded where possible. The bias is toward physical scarcity: civil wars, sanctions, mill outages, storage stress.
Brent and silver markets clear differently than rice or potash. Heavier weight goes to the deep, well-arbitraged contracts that mirror the Brent microstructure.
2022 trades at HFT-with-LLM-overlay tempo. 2008 did not. Recent cycles get amplified weight; the 2008 spike is referenced more than imitated.
Each card crops the closing-price tape to the 120-day window centered on the local peak. Weight bars indicate the contribution to the consensus path below.
Faded lines are the individual analogs, normalized to their peak. The bold trace is the probability-weighted mean; the shaded band is the 10th–90th percentile envelope at each offset. Click a chip to highlight an analog's contribution.
The composite path projected forward from today's spot, anchored to an analog-mean peak. The cone is the 10th–90th percentile envelope across analogs — the shape distribution, not a point forecast. Hover to read individual dates.
The modern analog set captures shape and small-deficit shock magnitude. To extrapolate to today's 10.5% adjusted deficit, we look at pre-2008 oil shocks — each pairing a measurable removal of global barrels with the 60-day pre-peak rally that followed.
The analog shape places the typical D−60 print at ~68% of peak. For each deficit-implied peak scenario, we solve for the offset where today's $102 spot lands on that curve — the further below peak today is, the further out the peak.
| Bucket | Struct | Expiry | K_L | K_S | Width | Debit | R:R | E[PnL] | p10 | Score |
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